Not since the industrial revolution has the world seen such
a tsunami of technological change. A change that affects each and every one on
the planet, in fact many maintain that the industrial revolution was but a blip
compared to what we are living through now. The big difference now is who is
paying for it. The steam revolution was bankrolled by the new middle classes
and industrialists and built on the backs of the new factory workers. The tech
revolution is being paid from your pockets and history has taught us some
important lessons about betting on the wrong horse when you know nothing of the
stables.
Don't panic...SELL!
Toward the end of 1929 Wall street was looking shaky, the
Dow Jones had taken a tumble in the spring but rallied again after the National
City Bank had propped it up with a $25
million injection but those in the know knew that it was time to cash their
chips and move to another table. By the end of October chips were being cashed
quicker than the market to sustain and “Black Tuesday” signalled the beginning
of a world depression. The Rockefellers and Billy Durant made a brave attempt
to save their investments but with over $30 billion (when $30 billion was a sum
of money) wiped off the markets in a matter of days, even they could not stem
the tide .
There have been many market crashes throughout history, most
bizarrely the Tulip mania crash of
1637, and more recently “Black Wednesday” in the early 90s, the dot-com bubble
at the end of the millennium and the one that we are still reeling from now
that seems to have begun when Lehman brothers fell in 2008. The nature of
markets is boom and bust, when speculators see a chance at massive returns they
will do what speculators do; speculate, and when the nuts and bolts of the
stock will no longer support the market value the bears move in and the prices
fall.
Tulip Mania - Middle-ages dot.com
The issue is now who loses when the markets slump. In 1929,
as the new middle classes and industrialists lost fortunes on the markets, the
working classes lost their work. We also
need to understand what happens in a bear market. A bear market, as defined by
Investopedia is more than 20% downturn in multiple stock indexes in a 2 month period and in
the crashes this happens in a matter of days but those who are close to the
market react quickly and sell their stock before losses bite too hard, leaving
those outside the loop to take the brunt. Around the end of the 90s, when Charles Schwab and E Trade introduced
online trading, the markets became available to all. The flipside of this is
that it made $billions of private funds available to the markets. Many of the
these services allow individuals to trade with a credit account, in other words
they allow you to speculate much more than you may have to lose. Speculation drives
prices, speculation by individuals without the same access to information or
understanding of company values as professional traders. This is a fantastic
democratisation of the markets but when it goes wrong it is the inner circle
that gets out first drawing the profits up the food chain and the losses to the
little fish.
Crowdfunding is seen as the new way for the common man to
get in on the investment ladder; services like Kickstarter and Crowdcube allow
anyone to become a venture capitalist by investing in start-ups and expanding
businesses. In a world where the banks are becoming all too reluctant to invest
in new and uncertain ventures, the householders have come to the rescue once
again. Mark Shuttleworth’s recent Ubuntu Edge campaign, while unsuccessful in raising its target $32 million, did reach
and unprecedented $12 million, proving that if you have the right concept you
can get people to buy a product that is still on the drawing board. This gives
many commercial venture capitalists the opportunity to sit back and allow
ventures to fly or flop before they get their hands dirty.
Stop grumbling and build an app!
The democratisation of investment would be a huge opportunity
for us to build a nest egg from our disposable income but in an age of
austerity and credit crunch more of us are speculating on credit with a dream
of joining the ranks of the steadily growing number of superstar billionaires. It
seems that, not satisfied with consuming commercial products at an unprecedented
rate we are now expected to dig deep to facilitate the financing of more stuff
for us to buy. The message is clear, with pension and equity funds managed by
professionals losing our money in toxic investments and flawed strategy,
building that retirement nest egg is another DIY responsibility. Part 4: How, after a brief flirtation with social welfare, government has put your welfare back in your hands
You may be sitting at your desk, well before your time,
making sure the boss sees the commitment you have to the company. You may be an entrepreneur, sitting at home coding the next big app for the app-store or calling
your friends to sell them some dish soap, a sandwich box or a vibrator. You may be sat in front
of a camera talking about the latest ephemeral star’s dress sense. You are
doing it for yourself. Or are you doing it for someone else. The contrivance of
a global recession has set the scene for Go-Get-It enterprise, the internet has
given you the global reach but are you
really getting it.
In 1948, Earl Silas Tupper developed a new kind of container
for keeping food fresh, but it was Brownie Wise who began a movement that would
change the way we work. Brownie Wise began network marketing when she
discovered that the best people to sell domestic products were the same people
who used them. After WWII, many women who had been working on aluminium drives in the community and in munitions factories for the war effort were returned to the kitchen, for some
this must have been a relief but for others it was an unwelcome return to
domestic hum-drum and they missed the extra income for the little pleasures of
the new consumer life. Brownie gave them some new purpose, selling Tupper’s
plastic containers to their friends through party plans. And, while they were
becoming new age entrepreneurs they were also turning their friends into
Tupperware’s customers.
It didn’t take long for other brands to realise the
potential of this business model and soon Avon began using the model for their
range of cosmetics and the Avon Ladies were born. Now it is possible to buy
anything from baby clothes and jewellery to sex toys at an invariably
women-only party.
This use of social networks to act as the shop front for
companies was taken to a new level when companies like Amway developed the
model further by encouraging individuals to become their own boss and make huge
incomes selling their products. Anyone who has attended an Amway meeting will
find it difficult to remain unaffected by the hype of success. Amway and its
peers focus on internal marketing to make sales of their products, their
network of “independent business owners” (IBOs) are sold on the dream that they
can make fortunes by selling to their social network and recruiting more to do
the same. Anyone who has been approached to join this network will be familiar
with their techniques, an experience that I share. Super successful evangelists
will tell you of how they were once builders or bank clerks but now live a life
of plenty with huge incomes thanks to taking matters into their own hands. What
Amway have done though, is to put the execution of their marketing plan into the hands of credible
sales people with their own marketing budget; Amway makes the products while you do the marketing, sales
and accounting for them from your own pocket.
The tech revolution seems to have democratised the
marketplace and now anyone can become a successful ebayer, Amazon marketplace
holder or sell your crafts on Etsy. This shift has reversed the Amway model by
selling the network to enterprising individuals to market their wares and it is
this global reach that gives them the power to make the rules.
Once Apple released the first iPhone the game would change
again. Apps, small
programs that could be developed by individuals or small
groups would be sold to smart phone users. Now the R&D department had been
outsourced. Google now sell other peoples products in the name of entrepreneurship.
The poster-boys of tech are selling their creations for millions. Young people
are now being sold on the idea that in order to make it big they must make it
for Google, while Google are making it hand over fist.
This year’s Forbes list boasts 210 new billionaires with an
increase of nearly a trillion dollars aggregate wealth over the previous year.
Youtube has “democratised” programme production by giving
everyone the ability to create content for their advertising platform.
Recent advances in 3D printing means that we will soon be able
to “print” products in our own home. This has already begun to bring with it
huge opportunities for enterprising people to begin designing and producing
goods to sell through online marketplaces. As the complexity of these products
progresses it will be possible to download plans from the major tech companies
to print your own phone or tablet and thus lower production and distribution costs while reducing the reliance
on staffed retail outlets. But, just as with IKEA's self-assembly it will also outsource the accountability of build
quality.
The responsibility to staff has already begun wither as so-called
“Zero-hour” contracts have hit the news recently in UK. The controversial
employment contract means that employees are not guaranteed any fixed hours of
work and must be on-call for when they are needed by the company. They are not
just used by fast-food chains and supermarkets but Universities and energy
companies have also realised the benefits of making salaries a more variable
expense. And it is not just the UK; a recent protest to the president of MacDonalds
in the US by a lone employee highlights the emphasis on self-reliance even in
the employment relationship.
The contrived world recession is laying the ground for an
environment of resourceful self-reliance; UNION is now a dirty word and
employers are developing commitment issues. And we are in danger of going back
to the work-houses with one difference, we will have to buy the tech, the
access and build the machines that will run it.
How IKEA has become the template for modern democracy.
Stand up now, look around, do it! You may be in a room full
of people, you may be in a busy street, you may be having coffee with a friend
but know this; you are alone. We are on the tipping point of a society that completely defers all responsibility to the individual to the point where a social modularism replaces democracy.
Mankind, like many animals, has an innate ability to create
communities. And, like so many other things
we do, we feel superior to the animals in this ability; we create
Democracies. We, again like many animals, create hierarchies, a chain of
command and responsibility where everyone has their place and duty. This is a structure
of interdependencies that break down the complicated mechanisms necessary to
maintain civilisation into manageable tasks. This democratic spread of obligations
meant that we could specialise in particular skills and disciplines according
to our abilities. The quid pro quo is that we take a share of the profits and
get to choose those who manage the system.
Karl Marx predicted that this interdependence would develop into
a society that would eliminate need and cement communities into a society of
equality through socialism. As Marx’s theories were beginning to be put into
practice in one of the biggest social experiments ever undertaken, Sigmund
Freud focused his attention on the individual.
Do It Yourself
Then came a subtle shift. In America, Edward Bernays, began
to develop ways to study consumers’ habits and drives using his uncle, Sigmund
Freud’s studies. He discovered that the potency of his uncle’s research allowed
him to not just understand individual behaviour but to influence it. According to
Adam Curtis, this began a systematic movement from community to the “Century of the Self”. He proposes that the knowledge obtained through Freud’s development of
psychoanalysis has been used to manipulate society. As early as 1927, Paul
Mazur, a top banker from the now defunct Lehman brothers wrote "We must shift America from a needs- to a desires-culture. People must be trained to desire, to want new things, even before the old have been entirely consumed."
By tapping into these newly nurtured desires marketeers have managed to make us
desire their never ending stream of life-enhancing devices and services. Now, it is not the enterprise of this that is
of most concern, it is the side-effect. In the beginning advertising focused on
peer acceptance and being a good member of the mass democracy. Then, after the
dust of WWII had settled the sense of self became the target. People were told
that it was their right to have whatever they wanted and the more they acquired,
the better people they were. People became judged by their appetites and their
ability to satisfy them. Conspicuous consumption replaced the satisfaction of
needs and those who consumed most conspicuously became the billboards of
commerce. By the end of the last century it was every man for himself.
We are now leaving the “century of self” and entering the “century
of do-it-yourself”.
Cheaper than China
1943, In Sweden, a young Ingvar Kamprad founded IKEA and
soon discovered that there was one place where labour could be sourced cheaper than China. By entrusting the consumer to assemble their own purchase,
significant savings could be made on production. Now most of us routinely
assemble our own furniture and think nothing of it. If anything we are proud of
our achievement and attach more value to the item we have built. The knock-on
effect for IKEA is that we not only make more impulse furniture purchases due
to the convenience of buying a box that fits in the car but that they have
deferred the build-quality responsibility from the manufacturer to us.
Driven by the desire culture and the systematic devolution
of obligation, civilisation has begun to outsource responsibility to the
individual.
Rhonda Byrne’s 2006 best-seller “The secret” declares that we are all capable of being and
having what we want so long as we project the idea strongly enough. More importantly,
it maintains that our lack of wealth and success is our own fault. Ok, now I
agree that if you sit on your arse and expect everyone else to do the running you
will get what you deserve but on the subject of human tragedy such as Indonesia’s
tsunami, 9/11 or even cancer, Byrne declares that they only befall people who
are “on the same frequency as the event”. So we are now accountable for epidemics and
natural disasters.
Keep Calm and avert disaster
Barbara Ehrenreich’s book “Smile or Die” investigates the
self-help culture and its apportioning of blame to the sufferer for not being ‘bright’
enough. Her experiences with breast cancer and the support groups that she
turned to for help are indicative of our new “keep calm and carry on” society
where you are welcome to lean on a friend as long as you don’t make a fuss
about it.
The current swathe of motivational speakers and self-help books are pushing the philosophy of individualism and self-support. None of them suggest that you should turn to friends, family or society to share. None advocate building support networks, that may just hit their sales. You are on your own and you better get used to it. Governments around the western world are reducing state health care and pensions and the message is clear; you have to work through your waking hours until you are no longer able, pay your taxes and insurances but if you haven't made adequate provision for your retirement then just don't retire (the DIY government is coming in another part). The years of double-shifts or building your own business have already weakened your bonds with your kids enough that they have little desire to care for you, even if they weren't too busy doing the same thing and more. The current resistance to Obama's health care plans highlights the attitude of "pay your own way and get what you are given". I'll close on my own piece of self-help advice. There is no shame in needing help from others and if you don't need it, offer it.
The next part of this observational study will explore how
the IKEA philosophy is being applied to the workplace and how new technology
will put us back in the workhouse with one main difference – we will buy the
machines.
One of the main worries of many young would-be entrepreneurs is having their genius idea stolen by some dastardly cad. You wake up in a sweat soaked bed and have the epiphany of the century, you keep it close to your chest until you have to share it with somebody and BAM! next week one of the big companies have produced the home bread slicer and you are back at your day job.
Intellectual property is a big deal and after the wranglings
between Apple and Samsung in USA and more recently James Dyson taking action against Samsung for breach of patents
relating to the steering technology on one of his vacuum cleaners. Two things become clear, one that it is very
important to get your patents in order and two, patent or not, companies can and
will come along a take you invention or brilliant business model and sell it
as their own if they see enough profit in it.
The modern age of Google-based advertising promises to be a
very dreary affair. Google has spent so long farming our online habits with
analysts pouring over their every nuance that they know more about what makes
us tick than we do ourselves. Let’s not just demonise Google, everyone is in
the business of data mining now, Facebook, linkedin, Amazon anyone who has a
click to be clicked, a date to be marked, a friend to be made is interested in
your choices. Kinda makes cookies lose their sweetness, eh? Those who track our online trawling have such
a well-rounded profile of all our habits and weaknesses they only need to
produce a handful of clickable images to trap all of us to such a high degree
of accuracy. This is the science of conversion rates.
Entrepreneurs are the new rock stars. I may not be the first
to draw that analogy and entrepreneurs will not be the last group to be
allegorized in this way; TV chefs , footballers and even scientists have all
had a similar comparison made. “… are the new rock-stars” is the vocational
equivalent to fashion’s “… is the new black”. Rock stars are the benchmark of
wild and glamorous. Rock stars have to beat the girls off with a sweaty guitar;
rock star means success in excess.
I wish I was coding
There was a time when every teenager wanted to master the
guitar, synthesizer or a pair of decks and play Wembley, Shea or headline
Glastonbury. There was a time, and not so long ago, when teens wanted to be
getting the action that Steve Tyler, Robert Plant or Tommy Lee were
getting. But, now instead of a band many
bedroom barons are trying to form a plc.
The failing Greek economy has been a tragedy played out on
the world stage for what seems like forever. Europe’s moustached loafers, once the
envy of all hard-working northern Europeans and the subject of many an
incredulous holiday-maker’s anecdote became the lazy, feckless swine who were
endangering the stability of the noble Euro. Then as they began to protest
against the austerity imposed for their own good by the wise Troika, they
became the petulant children who were obviously never mature enough to have
economic sovereignty in the first place.
Now the Eurozone is finally starting to show signs of growth
and the Greek economy’s contraction is slowing despite the austerity, It is time for another renaissance because
it’s occurred to me that Greece had it right all along.
'From Under Dark Clouds...' is a Gonzo
fictionalisation of current events in Greece as seen through the eyes of our
unnamed hero as he fumbles from paranoia to public office, under the mentorage
of the shady Socrates.
Each episode is based on real events. Readers are invited to share their
experiences for the Under Dark Clouds treatment. Many have been included
in cameo roles, can you spot them?
See link below for contributions
Wear's the beef?
I was still licking my wounds, dear Blogees after the
pasting from the peoples' pitbulls. I had a face like a findus lasagne. The police had not wanted to know
and if the truth be told there did seem to be a new fashion of
minimalist haircuts down the station house. The people were, mostly,
quite horrified about the incident but it had blown over a damn sight quicker than the pain in my noggin and anyway, these guys were actually doing
something rather than banging their gums about it down at the city
hall. They were, of course, quite right about that but banging
someone else's gums is not really the best way to deal with the
problem either.
Since that day their presence in the
town had been marked but as they hadn't bounced anyone around since
then, since me, I was willing to give them a wide birth and at least
let the people get the benefits of their provisions. This was a
decision I would live to regret.
We had managed to recover a good amount
of my predecessor, Mr. Mayor's embezzled funds but it wasn't going to
keep us going for long. Central government had promised to help us
out but so far all they had sent was a promise.
I had to clear my head so I kicked the
Vespa into life and let it take me on a tour of my kingdom. It took
me down streets I barely knew existed and on a number of occasions
very nearly bucked me off while swinging into a narrow passage. Apart
from the boarded up shops I noted all the unfinished and empty flats
and houses. The winter air was cold and my swollen face was beginning
to throb, I pulled over to put a bit of liquid warmer into my veins.
There, opposite was a block of apartments maybe 6 or 7, completely
unoccupied with a big sign outside advertising them being for sale.
The name of the developer was familiar but I couldn't place it at
all. I noted in my newly acquired filofax, took another nip of
Irish and set off. The Vespa seemed to have decided on an early
shower that day because next thing I knew I was pulling up outside my
house.
Penguin's pants
The wife was as cold as a Penguin's
pants but I knew that she cared. The kids assaulted my head with
questions and irrelevancies but their sublime sanity was soothing. I
read them a story at bedtime and had a glass of red stuff, maybe
wine, in front of the telly with the wife. She made one comment about
keeping my trap shut and another time she winced and asked me if it
hurt; she did care.
The empty properties occupied my
dreams. The name I couldn't place came out in a song, it was the mayor, at least the previous mayor, it was his name but more importantly he hadn't embezzled it all, some was in bricks and mortar in the middle of town.
When I woke it was still dark so I
crept around gathering my clothes and brushing my teeth in stealth
mode. I needn't have bothered. Nothing short of putting a bus stop by
the wardrobe would stir this sleeping beauty.
The morning air was icy and my face was
a map of numbness and pain. By the time I reached the town hall and
realised I didn't have the keys again, I was mute. I did, however
have my trusty Swiss army knife so it wasn't long before I was in the
building.
The birds were in a bit of a fluster
but there was still little sign of the sun making an appearance. What
I could hear was a shuffling from somewhere below the entrance level.
I had never explored the building so had little idea of its layout
but it occurred to me now that not only did it have a basement but
that it also had rats. I picked up a plastic leaflet rack that had
long since given its last information and made my way to the door by
the stairs. The handle twisted in my hand and the door punched me in
the nose.
On the other side was Mike, the IT guy
looking profoundly pre-corn flakes. “Good morning, Sir.”
I asked him what the hell he was doing
here at such an ungodly hour. He offered that he was putting in some
overtime; I laughed out loud.
“Overtime?” we weren't liquid
enough to cover the undertime! I asked him what IT we had down there
but he closed the door and offered me a cup of coffee.
I heard another shuffling from behind
the door, “ Mike, do we have rats?”