Sunday 4 December 2011

Cash in on Guilt

There's no way to rule innocent men. The only power any government has is the power to crack down on criminals. Well, when there aren't enough criminals, one makes them. One declares so many things to be a crime that it becomes impossible for men to live without breaking laws. Who wants a nation of law-abiding citizens? What's there in that for anyone? But just pass the kind of laws that can neither be observed nor enforced nor objectively interpreted and you create a nation of law-breakers - and then you cash in on guilt. 
Ayn Rand, Atlas Shrugged



Under the enormous pressure of the ECB and IMF and just about anyone who has any kind of stake in Greece at the moment, the powers that be are rolling out the only weapon they ever really knew how to wield, guilt. Over decades of laws and counter laws and the plugging of loopholes and the creation of favours, what Greece is left with is an unholy web of legislation that few understand and is almost inapplicable even by those whose job it is to impose it. Instead we have arbitrary demands based on the understanding that they are quite aware that you have a lot more to lose if they were to rigorously audit you. 


Monday 7 November 2011

If we all stop believing, will it cease to exist?


There has been a lot of talk of contagion during this Euro crisis. Contagion is the domino effect of a falling economy taking its less stable creditors over the edge, which in turn causes larger and larger economies to fall, unable to resist the infectious debt. Such is the incestuous nature of finance that this could feasibly take down the majority of the world economies; starting with one little trip. There is another contagion that worries the Eurozone, however, that is not spoken of, the contagion of faith.

The Euro is a fiat currency, which means that it has no substantial commodity (usually gold) underpinning it. This means that its value is derived from the faith in the issuing nation and the belief of the financial markets. Were Greece to be excommunicated, or worse, walk out during mass it would spend more than 40 days in the wilderness but it may just learn a thing or two, or at least appear to have. This is the most infectious idea that could be spawned. If Greece survived exile, and ultimately but painfully, it would, this would send a clear message to other suffering members to cut the cord.

The world's financial markets are run by some of the most sharp, aggressive and secular intellects on the planet. They form long and short term strategies and know how to make the market move in their favour but a hint of a rumour of an idea from someone who knows the right people and all hell breaks loose. If traders believe something will happen, it happens because they will make it happen. Have you ever noticed how the news that someone is leaving a company or political position sends the markets into turmoil. For the last two years the markets have gone wild every time Steve Jobs looked a bit peaky or adversely when he was looking well. The markets draw conclusions from omens that are interpreted by the high priests to mean up or down.

The markets don't know what to believe about the Euro, their fates are too closely linked to what everyone else believes, but their minds can easily be made up. If Greece and one other Eurozone economy lose the faith it could be more than the central bank can support.


For the time being, the big players in the Eurozone have faith that they can carry the currency and the market is willing to have faith in them. 



So, if we stop believing in the Euro, will it cease to exist?...




...that depends on who we are.    

Thursday 3 November 2011

Why Greece will fall

who will play Captn George
 in the movie

The present problem derives from the fact the EU thinks it is in battle with Greece but it is not. Greece is in a battle with its government and its political classes as a whole, both right and left. It knows that it has played its part in the situation but it will not take responsibility for its self-serving rulers any more. The EU is dealing with the government who has no influence over its people. 


The Papandreou and Karamanlis dynasties have only ever been allowed to govern because they have shared out the sweeties from time to time, the public sector is bloated with the price of favour, crumbling roads are the price of wannabe civil engineers who happened to be cousins. Now, however, the sweeties are all gone and the sweet shop is calling in the debt. The rulers never curried any sustainable favour and definitely never earned any respect. 
    
The people will vote against its government, not the Euro, not the EU but the government has now made that the same thing. Those who have been managing this country have missed all the lessons on running a tight ship, efficiency is all German to them and working a narrow margin is vaguely sexual. Ultimately, all will lose, the Greeks, the single currency and, once again, the Germans.     

Hopefully, once its all over Greece may get a ringmaster worth his ring and then be remembered as the 300 of Thermopylae. 

Wednesday 5 October 2011

Feel the love

At last someone has been prepared to say what we knew all along. The Emperor's arse is on show and it ain't pretty. 



THEY REALLY DON'T CARE!
Nice tie

...and these people run your world. 

Thursday 29 September 2011

WHAT DO WE WANT?...


It's a little after 10 o'clock but these secondary school children will be having no lessons today. They are striking, not for better pay and conditions, not to show their solidarity against the austerity measures imposed on their country, they are striking because they have no books for their classes.


Wednesday 21 September 2011

He's not the father of modern wisdom, he's a very naughty boy!


More and more, Greece is being vilified as the enemy of European unity, the weakest link in an otherwise world-class currency and caricatured as lazy and feckless. This wave of enmity is beginning to serve but one purpose, lining the fingers up in one direction. While Europe points in one unified direction they can avert the scorn from themselves.


The Greek people are not lazy or, indeed, feckless. Yes, they do like their afternoon nap but they will then return to work until 9 or 10 in the evening. They are as hard-working as anyone in Europe, go on have a look round your office or place of work now, how many are skivers? What are you doing? Reading my blog that's what! As for feckless, well they managed to pull the wool over Brussels' eyes, didn't they?

I spoke to a friend yesterday who told me of his chronic insomnia, "How can you sleep with all this going on?" thing is, this isn't the first person who has told me this. Since I started haunting my own house I have discovered that I'm far from alone.  

It is a convenient oversimplification to say that Greece is bringing down the Euro, it was a flawed plan from the beginning, synchronising such diverse economic strategies was always going to be a tough challenge. It is not Greek laziness or fecklessness that is at the root of an economic avalanche that could, possibly, destabilise even the Dollar. Let us remember that Lehman Bros was brought down by some of the smartest suits in Wall street, Iceland was bankrupt without a siesta or a moustache in sight. 

The clever suits' austerity measures are not working and the same people are telling us that we have to bite down a bit  harder. 

There is no more faith and precious little hope, all we see at the end of the tunnel is a toll. The managers aren't managing but we've all known that for ages. 

Greece doesn't need any more lessons, it needs someone who can teach!   





Some of you who regularly look me up will have notice that I've been a bit lax, well, I'm back. 
Come back soon to find out the fate of our own feckless revolutionary, will he finally take office or is he doomed to wear football gloves in the prison showers.    


Wednesday 6 July 2011

Faith



The US owes over $14 trillion, the UK owes £900 million, Greece now owes another €340 billion, I owe nearly €100,000. How much do you owe, how much have you spent that you didn’t have and when will you have it.


National debt is calculated as a percentage of GDP (gross domestic product), this is to say how much you owe compared to how much you make. For me that means 2-3 years of giving every penny myself and my wife earn to pay off our debts, nothing for food, fuel, mobiles. Then there is the interest, this would put another year or so on that scenario. But, of course we have to eat and clothe ourselves and the fridge needs a beer or two. Take a look at your finances, how many years are you in the hole for. 
Twitshot

Saturday 14 May 2011

Exam Madness


For over two and a half thousand years Greece has had an insatiable appetite for knowledge and wisdom, in fact as the saying goes ‘Greece gave light to the world’. This time of the year is the acme of that achievement with the national Panhellenic university entrance exams. 

From Under Dark Clouds

The Century of DIY